Are we really in an over-$400k market in Cheverly?

An enthusiastic Cheverly resident (who isn't moving, by the way, so she doesn't really have a vested interest in the answer) said that she had heard that houses are selling in Cheverly in the $400s. My quick answer was that Cheverly sales had dipped its toe into the over-$400k market, but found it a bit too chilly.

However, that made me think about backing up my answer with actual facts. So here is the "Over-$400k" funnel.

25 homes listed over $400k since the beginning of 2014.

Of those, 4 haven't sold yet:
2 are new construction at $535,000 (1 active and 1 under contract)
1 is an older house with an addition at $650,000 (active)
1 is an older house that is nicely updated (under contract).

That leaves 21. Of those:
4 failed to sell and have not come back on the market as of the end of February 2016.

That leaves 17 that actually sold. Of those:
3 came on the market over $400k, but actually sold in the high $300s.

Now we have 14 that actually sold above $400k. Of those:
3 were new construction, built in 2014 and 2015
2 were newer homes, with amenities (2 car garages, etc.) more in alignment with new construction than the older homes.

Now we have 9 older homes. Of those:
1 was significantly larger than any other homes for sale in Cheverly (over 3000 sq ft above grade)

Of the 8 left:
7 were completely renovated (mostly as flipped properties)

And the last one sold in early 2014 and, in my opinion, was a fluke. I still can't figure out how it sold as high as it did.

For me, this says that to get more than $400k, one of 3 things needs to happen - 1) we need low inventory and lots of actively-looking buyers to help prices go up, but I'm not sure we'll see that this spring. 2) the house needs to be completely renovated or 3) it needs to be truly unique and special - hard to do in an neighborhood of mostly tract homes.

It looked like we were going to get there toward the end of last Spring and early summer, but the slow-down in the Fall put a definite slow-down on appreciation as well.

Here's looking at 2016, though!